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Hurricane GORDON


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006
500 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2006
 
THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF GORDON REMAINS ALMOST UNCHANGED FROM
THIS MORNING.  A 20 N MI WIDE EYE CONTINUES TO EXIST WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SURROUNDING IT.  DESPITE 20 TO 25 KT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
IMPINGING UPON THE HURRICANE...GORDON MAINTAINS MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 105 KT.  THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.5 OR 102 KT
FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.
 
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND REASONING IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS
EARLIER TODAY AS WELL.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM BOTH SHIPS AND
THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECASTS GORDON TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THROUGH 5 DAYS...BUT THE WEAKENING COULD BE TOO FAST.  ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE GFDL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS GORDON AS A HURRICANE THROUGH
FIVE DAYS WHICH COULD BE A BIT OVERDONE.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE AND COMMENCES A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND THROUGH 4 DAYS AND THEN LEVELS OUT THE INTENSITY AS
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 035/10.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY
CLOSE AGREEMENT AND ANTICIPATES A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE
STEERING CURRENTS IN ABOUT 18-24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE INITIAL
MOTION HAS YET TO HINT AT A DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION.  WITH THAT
SAID...THE FORECAST MOTION OF GORDON IS THE MOST CHALLENGING PART
OF THE FORECAST.  AFTER 72 HOURS...ECMWF...UKMET...AND FSU SUPER
ENSEMBLE ALL ACCELERATE GORDON AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-
LATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE EARLY PERIODS AND IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THIS MORNING'S PACKAGE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/2100Z 30.2N  54.9W   105 KT
 12HR VT     15/0600Z 31.3N  54.0W    95 KT
 24HR VT     15/1800Z 32.1N  53.2W    85 KT
 36HR VT     16/0600Z 32.9N  52.3W    75 KT
 48HR VT     16/1800Z 33.8N  51.4W    65 KT
 72HR VT     17/1800Z 37.0N  47.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     18/1800Z 40.5N  39.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     19/1800Z 43.0N  27.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 14-Sep-2006 20:40:01 UTC