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Hurricane FLORENCE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  29              
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006               
2100 UTC SUN SEP 10 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  31(41)   4(45)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   3(17)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  29(29)  19(48)   1(49)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  10(19)   1(20)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  31(31)   9(40)   1(41)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   6(16)   X(16)
ILE ST PIERRE  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  21(21)   7(28)   1(29)
BURGEO NFLD    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)   X(10)
BURGEO NFLD    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)   5(21)   1(22)
PTX BASQUES    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)   2(22)   1(23)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
EDDY POINT NS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  21(21)   4(25)   X(25)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)
SYDNEY NS      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  36(43)   3(46)   X(46)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   1(18)   X(18)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   1(14)   1(15)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34 96   2(98)   X(98)   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BERMUDA        50 18  48(66)   2(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
BERMUDA        64  3  35(38)   2(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 313N  661W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 313N  661W 50 94   3(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
 12 313N  661W 64 68  11(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
 
 24 336N  651W 34 77  21(98)   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 24 336N  651W 50  3  72(75)   8(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 24 336N  651W 64  X  49(49)  11(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)
 
 36 360N  636W 34  1  52(53)  37(90)   4(94)   1(95)   X(95)   X(95)
 36 360N  636W 50  X   6( 6)  51(57)   9(66)   1(67)   X(67)   X(67)
 36 360N  636W 64  X   2( 2)  29(31)   8(39)   1(40)   X(40)   X(40)
 
 48 386N  616W 34  X   1( 1)  37(38)  37(75)   9(84)   X(84)   X(84)
 48 386N  616W 50  X   X( X)   7( 7)  31(38)  10(48)   X(48)   X(48)
 48 386N  616W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)   5(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
 
 72 450N  550W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  45(46)  11(57)   X(57)
 72 450N  550W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   5(22)   X(22)
 72 450N  550W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)   X(10)
 
 
 96 480N  450W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  28(31)   7(38)
 96 480N  450W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   4(15)
 96 480N  450W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
 
120 480N  340W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  13(17)
120 480N  340W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
120 480N  340W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     90     95      90      80      65      60      50
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:37 UTC