Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm FLORENCE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9         
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006               
2100 UTC TUE SEP 05 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   6(13)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
PONCE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)
PONCE          50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   3(12)
SAN JUAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   3(13)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   5(12)   2(14)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)   1(11)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   4(12)   2(14)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)   2(11)
ANTIGUA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
GUADELOUPE     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 180N  499W 34 83   5(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
 12 180N  499W 50 10   6(16)   X(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 12 180N  499W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 24 188N  519W 34 14  52(66)   8(74)   1(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
 24 188N  519W 50  X  16(16)   9(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 24 188N  519W 64  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 36 197N  540W 34  1  19(20)  35(55)   8(63)   3(66)   X(66)   X(66)
 36 197N  540W 50  X   2( 2)  18(20)   7(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 36 197N  540W 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
 48 206N  565W 34  X   1( 1)  18(19)  26(45)  13(58)   1(59)   X(59)
 48 206N  565W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)   7(24)   1(25)   X(25)
 48 206N  565W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
 
 72 223N  611W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  32(38)  10(48)   3(51)
 72 223N  611W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   7(21)   1(22)
 72 223N  611W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)
 
 
 96 243N  657W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  24(32)  10(42)
 96 243N  657W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   5(19)
 96 243N  657W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)
 
 
120 270N  690W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)  15(30)
120 270N  690W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)
120 270N  690W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     45     50      55      60      70      80      90
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:37 UTC