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Tropical Depression SIX


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4         
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006               
1500 UTC MON SEP 04 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PONCE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
ANTIGUA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
BARBADOS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 170N  440W 34 29  14(43)   2(45)   X(45)   X(45)   1(46)   X(46)
 12 170N  440W 50  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 12 170N  440W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 178N  456W 34  2  35(37)  10(47)   3(50)   1(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 24 178N  456W 50  X   6( 6)   4(10)   1(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 24 178N  456W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 185N  471W 34  X  12(12)  28(40)   8(48)   4(52)   1(53)   X(53)
 36 185N  471W 50  X   1( 1)   8( 9)   5(14)   1(15)   1(16)   X(16)
 36 185N  471W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 48 192N  489W 34  X   2( 2)  13(15)  20(35)  11(46)   3(49)   X(49)
 48 192N  489W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   5(14)   2(16)   X(16)
 48 192N  489W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)
 
 
 72 200N  520W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  24(33)   9(42)   3(45)
 72 200N  520W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   5(16)   2(18)
 72 200N  520W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
 
 96 210N  555W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)  17(29)   7(36)
 96 210N  555W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   3(13)
 96 210N  555W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
 
120 220N  590W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)  11(24)
120 220N  590W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)
120 220N  590W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     40      45      50      60      70      75
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:37 UTC