Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane FLORENCE


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006
500 AM EDT MON SEP 11 2006
 
A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST FINISHED ONE COMPLETE PATTERN IN
FLORENCE...AND THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 73 KT IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  THIS IS DOWN FROM THE 86 KT FOUND ON THE
PREVIOUS MISSION.  THE CREW ALSO REPORTED THAT THE EYEWALL HAD
ERODED...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH IMAGES FROM THE BERMUDA RADAR. 
ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURE IS HOLDING STEADY...IT APPEARS THAT THE WIND
FIELD HAS EXPANDED SOMEWHAT...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED
TO 70 KT.  ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...THE BROADENING OF THE WIND FIELD SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL
BE NO MAJOR CHANGES IN INTENSITY BEFORE FLORENCE MOVES AWAY FROM
BERMUDA.  AFTER ABOUT 24-36 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL
INCREASE SHARPLY AND FLORENCE WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER
WATERS.  HOWEVER...BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH A SHORT WAVE IN THE
WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE NEW ENERGY TO FLORENCE AS IT
BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AFTER 48 HOURS...WHICH WILL SLOW THE
WEAKENING PROCESS AND RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT EXPANSION OF THE WIND
FIELD. 

FLORENCE HAS BEGUN ITS RECURVATURE...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
010/10.  ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF FLORENCE WILL PASS WELL TO THE WEST
OF BERMUDA...THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS EAST OF THE CENTER WILL BE
VERY CLOSE TO THE ISLAND.  THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE
WEST TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.  THE GFS CONTROL RUN IS AN OUTLIER WITH A
FASTER EASTWARD MOTION...BUT INTERESTINGLY...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.    
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0900Z 31.8N  66.0W    70 KT
 12HR VT     11/1800Z 33.6N  65.6W    70 KT
 24HR VT     12/0600Z 36.0N  64.5W    70 KT
 36HR VT     12/1800Z 38.5N  62.5W    65 KT
 48HR VT     13/0600Z 41.5N  60.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     14/0600Z 46.5N  50.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     15/0600Z 50.0N  35.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     16/0600Z...ABSORBED WITHIN EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:37 UTC