Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane FLORENCE


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 10 2006
 
EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED AN EYEWALL THAT WAS
PARTIALLY OPEN ON THE NORTH SIDE.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
NOT INCREASED FROM OVERNIGHT AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN
70 KT.  HOWEVER...IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO THE EYE APPEARS TO HAVE
BECOME BETTER DEFINED.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM AROUND 1800 UTC
TODAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY.  
CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS WELL DEFINED EXCEPT TO THE EAST...AND FLORENCE
WILL BE TRAVERSING SSTS 28 DEGREES CELSIUS OR HIGHER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  STRENGTHENING IS THEREFORE FORECAST AND FLORENCE COULD
BE A STRONG CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE WHEN IT IS NEAR BERMUDA. 
AFTERWARDS...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD
IMPART A GRADUAL WEAKENING.  HOWEVER... FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL CYCLONE ONCE IT UNDERGOES
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/11.  IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTHWARD TURN IS
BEGINNING TO MATERIALIZE AS PREDICTED.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...AS
FLORENCE IS STEERED BY THE WESTERLIES...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
SOMEWHAT WITH THE NOGAPS AND GFS MOVING THE SYSTEM MUCH CLOSER 
TO NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH HAS HAD A GOOD TRACK RECORD WITH THIS STORM.
AT 5 DAYS...THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD
REQUIRING SOME ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE. 

THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII ARE PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO EXPAND EVEN FURTHER AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD
OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTHWEST OF FLORENCE.  THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CREATE ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/1500Z 28.7N  65.9W    70 KT
 12HR VT     11/0000Z 30.3N  66.2W    80 KT
 24HR VT     11/1200Z 32.7N  65.5W    95 KT
 36HR VT     12/0000Z 35.4N  63.8W    90 KT
 48HR VT     12/1200Z 38.1N  61.5W    80 KT
 72HR VT     13/1200Z 44.5N  55.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     14/1200Z 48.0N  46.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     15/1200Z 48.0N  35.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:37 UTC