ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 10 2006 EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED AN EYEWALL THAT WAS PARTIALLY OPEN ON THE NORTH SIDE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT INCREASED FROM OVERNIGHT AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 70 KT. HOWEVER...IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO THE EYE APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME BETTER DEFINED. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM AROUND 1800 UTC TODAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY. CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS WELL DEFINED EXCEPT TO THE EAST...AND FLORENCE WILL BE TRAVERSING SSTS 28 DEGREES CELSIUS OR HIGHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRENGTHENING IS THEREFORE FORECAST AND FLORENCE COULD BE A STRONG CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE WHEN IT IS NEAR BERMUDA. AFTERWARDS...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD IMPART A GRADUAL WEAKENING. HOWEVER... FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL CYCLONE ONCE IT UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/11. IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTHWARD TURN IS BEGINNING TO MATERIALIZE AS PREDICTED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...AS FLORENCE IS STEERED BY THE WESTERLIES...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT WITH THE NOGAPS AND GFS MOVING THE SYSTEM MUCH CLOSER TO NEWFOUNDLAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH HAS HAD A GOOD TRACK RECORD WITH THIS STORM. AT 5 DAYS...THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD REQUIRING SOME ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII ARE PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO EXPAND EVEN FURTHER AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTHWEST OF FLORENCE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CREATE ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 28.7N 65.9W 70 KT 12HR VT 11/0000Z 30.3N 66.2W 80 KT 24HR VT 11/1200Z 32.7N 65.5W 95 KT 36HR VT 12/0000Z 35.4N 63.8W 90 KT 48HR VT 12/1200Z 38.1N 61.5W 80 KT 72HR VT 13/1200Z 44.5N 55.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 14/1200Z 48.0N 46.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 15/1200Z 48.0N 35.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:37 UTC