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Tropical Storm FLORENCE


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 09 2006
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/11...BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND 09/1007Z SSMI AND 09/1015Z
QUIKSCAT OVERPASSES. THE BASIC FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY ROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH A BREAK OR WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO DEVELOP IN 36-48
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 65 KT...77 KT...AND 90 KT FROM SAB...TAFB...
AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY...SUGGEST THAT FLORENCE COULD BE A
HURRICANE. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS TILTED 12-18 NMI NORTHWEST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND THAT THERE WAS NO EYE FEATURE PRESENT.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ONLY NUDGED UPWARD SLIGHTLY
AND AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AROUND 18Z WILL DETERMINE
WHETHER OR NOT FLORENCE IS A HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ALSO
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE
GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/1500Z 24.7N  63.7W    60 KT
 12HR VT     10/0000Z 25.9N  64.8W    70 KT
 24HR VT     10/1200Z 27.7N  65.7W    75 KT
 36HR VT     11/0000Z 29.7N  65.9W    85 KT
 48HR VT     11/1200Z 31.9N  65.3W    90 KT...NEAR BERMUDA
 72HR VT     12/1200Z 37.6N  61.6W    85 KT
 96HR VT     13/1200Z 44.0N  54.0W    70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     14/1200Z 49.0N  44.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:37 UTC