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Tropical Storm ERNESTO


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  29          
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006               
2100 UTC THU AUG 31 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.                             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW YORK CITY  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   3( 3)   8(11)   6(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   3( 3)   6( 9)   4(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  1   4( 5)   9(14)   5(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  1   4( 5)  10(15)   6(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
WASHINGTON DC  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  1   4( 5)   6(11)   3(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  3  19(22)   7(29)   2(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
RICHMOND VA    50  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  5  17(22)   5(27)   2(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  2   3( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
RALEIGH NC     34 12  15(27)   X(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
RALEIGH NC     50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34 13   7(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  2   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34 60   3(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  5   4( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34 93   2(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
WILMINGTON NC  50 38   3(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
WILMINGTON NC  64  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34 78   1(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
MYRTLE BEACH   50 19   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  7   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 347N  780W 34 84   5(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
 12 347N  780W 50 24   5(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 12 347N  780W 64  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 24 370N  775W 34  6  24(30)   5(35)   2(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
 24 370N  775W 50  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 24 370N  775W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 385N  775W 34  1   7( 8)   9(17)   4(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 36 385N  775W 50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 36 385N  775W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 48 410N  785W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 48 410N  785W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 48 410N  785W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     50     30      25      25       0       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:36 UTC