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Tropical Storm ERNESTO


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  23          
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006               
0900 UTC WED AUG 30 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW YORK CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   X(10)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   4(12)   X(12)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   5(14)   X(14)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   3(14)   X(14)
ATLANTIC CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  15(18)   4(22)   X(22)
BALTIMORE MD   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   4(18)   X(18)
DOVER DE       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  15(18)   4(22)   X(22)
ANNAPOLIS MD   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  15(19)   4(23)   X(23)
WASHINGTON DC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   3(17)   X(17)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  15(25)   3(28)   X(28)
RICHMOND VA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  13(23)   3(26)   X(26)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)  12(25)   1(26)   X(26)
GREENSBORO NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  15(19)  13(32)   1(33)   X(33)
RALEIGH NC     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
RALEIGH NC     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   8(20)   2(22)   X(22)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)  10(13)   8(21)   1(22)   X(22)
CHARLOTTE NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   8( 8)  14(22)   7(29)   2(31)   X(31)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   1( 1)  13(14)  19(33)   6(39)   1(40)   X(40)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)   1(11)   X(11)
WILMINGTON NC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)   9(18)   5(23)   1(24)   X(24)
COLUMBIA SC    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   2( 2)  21(23)  18(41)   4(45)   1(46)   X(46)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)
MYRTLE BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   3( 3)  26(29)  12(41)   2(43)   1(44)   X(44)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
CHARLESTON SC  64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   6(13)   1(14)   1(15)   X(15)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   5( 5)  18(23)   6(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  1  11(12)  12(24)   2(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  6  26(32)   7(39)   1(40)   1(41)   X(41)   X(41)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ORLANDO FL     34 12  22(34)   2(36)   X(36)   1(37)   X(37)   X(37)
ORLANDO FL     50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34 21  25(46)   3(49)   X(49)   1(50)   X(50)   X(50)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  1   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34 38   9(47)   2(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
FT PIERCE FL   50  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
W PALM BEACH   34 51   2(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)
 
MIAMI FL       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
MARATHON FL    34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34 16   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
FT MYERS FL    34 15   2(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
VENICE FL      34  6   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
TAMPA FL       34  4   3( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  1   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  5   2( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 272N  810W 34 45   7(52)   1(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)
 12 272N  810W 50  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 12 272N  810W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 295N  805W 34  3  34(37)  12(49)   1(50)   X(50)   1(51)   X(51)
 24 295N  805W 50  X   6( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 24 295N  805W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 322N  797W 34  X   7( 7)  35(42)   7(49)   2(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 36 322N  797W 50  X   X( X)  11(11)   4(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 36 322N  797W 64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 48 347N  789W 34  X   1( 1)   9(10)  21(31)   7(38)   1(39)   X(39)
 48 347N  789W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 48 347N  789W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 72 385N  787W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  16(21)   4(25)   X(25)
 72 385N  787W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 72 385N  787W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 415N  800W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   6(16)   X(16)
 96 415N  800W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 96 415N  800W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     40      50      40      35      25       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:36 UTC