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Tropical Storm ERNESTO


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  22          
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006               
0300 UTC WED AUG 30 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CONCORD NH     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
 
NEW YORK CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   5(12)   X(12)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   5(12)   X(12)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   5(14)   X(14)
TRENTON NJ     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   5(17)   X(17)
ATLANTIC CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   4(20)   X(20)
BALTIMORE MD   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   5(20)   X(20)
DOVER DE       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   5(21)   X(21)
ANNAPOLIS MD   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  13(17)   5(22)   X(22)
WASHINGTON DC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   5(21)   X(21)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  14(24)   4(28)   X(28)
RICHMOND VA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  15(25)   4(29)   X(29)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)  12(31)   1(32)   X(32)
GREENSBORO NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  22(24)  14(38)   1(39)   X(39)
RALEIGH NC     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   X(12)   X(12)
RALEIGH NC     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  13(24)   3(27)   X(27)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)   9(28)   1(29)   X(29)
CHARLOTTE NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  20(23)  11(34)   2(36)   X(36)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  28(33)  11(44)   1(45)   X(45)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   5(13)   1(14)   X(14)
WILMINGTON NC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)  22(26)   6(32)   1(33)   X(33)
COLUMBIA SC    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
COLUMBIA SC    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   1( 1)   9(10)  31(41)   8(49)   1(50)   X(50)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   5(17)   X(17)   X(17)
MYRTLE BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   2( 2)  15(17)  24(41)   4(45)   X(45)   X(45)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)
CHARLESTON SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)  15(19)   3(22)   1(23)   X(23)
AUGUSTA GA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   2( 2)  15(17)  16(33)   2(35)   X(35)   X(35)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  1   7( 8)  15(23)   6(29)   X(29)   1(30)   X(30)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  2  25(27)  14(41)   2(43)   X(43)   1(44)   X(44)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   4( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  7  30(37)   5(42)   1(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
ORLANDO FL     50  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34 10  33(43)   6(49)   1(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  X   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34 20  25(45)   2(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
W PALM BEACH   34 38   5(43)   X(43)   X(43)   1(44)   X(44)   X(44)
 
MIAMI FL       34 88   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
 
MARATHON FL    34 16   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34 21   3(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
FT MYERS FL    34 17   8(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 
VENICE FL      34  7   5(12)   1(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
TAMPA FL       34  4  11(15)   2(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  1   5( 6)   2( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  6   4(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 266N  811W 34 44  10(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
 12 266N  811W 50  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 12 266N  811W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 286N  808W 34  6  33(39)   9(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 24 286N  808W 50  X   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 24 286N  808W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 312N  801W 34  X   7( 7)  31(38)  10(48)   2(50)   X(50)   X(50)
 36 312N  801W 50  X   X( X)   8( 8)   4(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 36 312N  801W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 48 338N  792W 34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)  31(40)   7(47)   1(48)   X(48)
 48 338N  792W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   4(16)   1(17)   X(17)
 48 338N  792W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
 
 72 375N  780W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  15(26)   3(29)   X(29)
 72 375N  780W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 72 375N  780W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 96 400N  780W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   5(18)   X(18)
 96 400N  780W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 96 400N  780W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     35      45      55      30      25       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER FRANKLIN                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:36 UTC