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Tropical Storm ERNESTO


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  21          
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006               
2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
CONCORD NH     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   3(10)
MONTAUK POINT  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
NEW YORK CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   3(13)
NEW YORK CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   3(13)
NEWARK NJ      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   5(12)   3(15)
TRENTON NJ     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   5(13)   3(16)
ATLANTIC CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   5(15)   3(18)
BALTIMORE MD   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   5(15)   3(18)
DOVER DE       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   5(16)   3(19)
ANNAPOLIS MD   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   5(17)   2(19)
WASHINGTON DC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   5(17)   3(20)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)   4(23)   2(25)
RICHMOND VA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)   5(24)   2(26)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  18(22)   2(24)   1(25)
GREENSBORO NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  22(28)   2(30)   1(31)
RALEIGH NC     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  17(22)   3(25)   1(26)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  15(21)   1(22)   1(23)
CHARLOTTE NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  19(30)   2(32)   1(33)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   1(10)   1(11)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)  19(37)   1(38)   1(39)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   2(14)   X(14)
WILMINGTON NC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)  12(25)   2(27)   X(27)
COLUMBIA SC    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  20(25)  16(41)   2(43)   X(43)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   9(15)   X(15)   X(15)
MYRTLE BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)  10(10)  21(31)  11(42)   1(43)   X(43)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   5(14)   X(14)   X(14)
CHARLESTON SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   9(20)   1(21)   X(21)
AUGUSTA GA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   2( 2)  12(14)  17(31)   6(37)   1(38)   X(38)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  1   8( 9)  20(29)  10(39)   2(41)   X(41)   1(42)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  6  24(30)  24(54)   4(58)   1(59)   1(60)   X(60)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   3( 3)  15(18)   2(20)   X(20)   1(21)   X(21)
DAYTONA BEACH  64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ORLANDO FL     34 15  33(48)  16(64)   1(65)   1(66)   X(66)   X(66)
ORLANDO FL     50  X  10(10)  10(20)   X(20)   X(20)   1(21)   X(21)
ORLANDO FL     64  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34 21  34(55)  13(68)   2(70)   1(71)   X(71)   X(71)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  X  10(10)  11(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
COCOA BEACH FL 64  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34 37  29(66)   6(72)   1(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
FT PIERCE FL   50  1  13(14)   4(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
FT PIERCE FL   64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
W PALM BEACH   34 56  19(75)   2(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
W PALM BEACH   50  6  12(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
MIAMI FL       34 75   9(84)   1(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
MIAMI FL       50 25   6(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
MIAMI FL       64  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MARATHON FL    34 71   3(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
MARATHON FL    50  6   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
KEY WEST FL    34 30   3(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34 57  17(74)   X(74)   1(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
MARCO ISLAND   50  7   8(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
MARCO ISLAND   64  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FT MYERS FL    34 43  24(67)   2(69)   1(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
FT MYERS FL    50  2  11(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
FT MYERS FL    64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
VENICE FL      34 20  24(44)   3(47)   2(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
VENICE FL      50  X   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
TAMPA FL       34 10  24(34)   8(42)   2(44)   X(44)   1(45)   X(45)
TAMPA FL       50  X   4( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  2  10(12)  10(22)   3(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  1   1( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34 35   9(44)   3(47)   X(47)   1(48)   X(48)   X(48)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 13   3(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   1(18)
 
ANDROS         34  9   2(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
HAVANA         34  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 256N  809W 34 76   8(84)   1(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
 12 256N  809W 50 22  11(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 12 256N  809W 64  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 24 275N  811W 34 35  33(68)   7(75)   1(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
 24 275N  811W 50  1  21(22)   4(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 24 275N  811W 64  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 36 299N  806W 34  3  14(17)  29(46)   9(55)   2(57)   1(58)   X(58)
 36 299N  806W 50  X   X( X)  16(16)   5(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 36 299N  806W 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
 48 325N  797W 34  X   1( 1)  12(13)  25(38)  10(48)   X(48)   1(49)
 48 325N  797W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   5(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 48 325N  797W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)
 
 
 72 370N  785W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  18(21)   4(25)   1(26)
 72 370N  785W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 72 370N  785W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 96 405N  780W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   6(13)   2(15)
 96 405N  780W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 96 405N  780W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 430N  780W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   2(10)
120 430N  780W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
120 430N  780W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     55     50      55      60      30      25      25
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:36 UTC