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Tropical Storm ERNESTO


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  20          
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006               
1500 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
CONCORD NH     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
 
NEW YORK CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   2(11)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   2(11)
ATLANTIC CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)   2(13)
BALTIMORE MD   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   5(12)   1(13)
DOVER DE       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   6(13)   2(15)
ANNAPOLIS MD   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   6(13)   1(14)
WASHINGTON DC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   6(13)   1(14)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   5(17)   2(19)
RICHMOND VA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   5(18)   1(19)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)   4(22)   1(23)
GREENSBORO NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  19(21)   4(25)   1(26)
RALEIGH NC     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)   4(21)   1(22)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)   3(22)   1(23)
CHARLOTTE NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  19(22)   3(25)   1(26)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  23(30)   3(33)   1(34)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   2(12)   X(12)
WILMINGTON NC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  17(24)   2(26)   X(26)
COLUMBIA SC    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  24(35)   3(38)   X(38)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   2(14)   X(14)
MYRTLE BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  14(18)  21(39)   2(41)   X(41)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   1(14)   X(14)
CHARLESTON SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)  15(22)   1(23)   X(23)
AUGUSTA GA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   7( 7)  17(24)  13(37)   1(38)   X(38)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)   X(10)   1(11)
SAVANNAH GA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   4( 4)  16(20)  18(38)   6(44)   1(45)   X(45)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  1  14(15)  29(44)  11(55)   4(59)   X(59)   X(59)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   1( 1)   9(10)   7(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)
DAYTONA BEACH  64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  3  24(27)  29(56)   6(62)   1(63)   X(63)   X(63)
ORLANDO FL     50  X   3( 3)  14(17)   2(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)
ORLANDO FL     64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  5  27(32)  25(57)   5(62)   2(64)   X(64)   X(64)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  X   3( 3)  14(17)   3(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
COCOA BEACH FL 64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34 10  37(47)  15(62)   2(64)   1(65)   X(65)   X(65)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   6( 6)  12(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
FT PIERCE FL   64  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
W PALM BEACH   34 29  33(62)   6(68)   1(69)   X(69)   1(70)   X(70)
W PALM BEACH   50  X  12(12)   6(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
W PALM BEACH   64  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MIAMI FL       34 60  22(82)   2(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
MIAMI FL       50  2  24(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
MIAMI FL       64  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MARATHON FL    34 78  10(88)   X(88)   1(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
MARATHON FL    50 18  19(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
MARATHON FL    64  2   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
KEY WEST FL    34 56  11(67)   X(67)   1(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
KEY WEST FL    50  5   8(13)   X(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34 34  39(73)   4(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
MARCO ISLAND   50  1  24(25)   4(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
MARCO ISLAND   64  X   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
FT MYERS FL    34 16  45(61)   9(70)   1(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
FT MYERS FL    50  X  16(16)   8(24)   1(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)
FT MYERS FL    64  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
VENICE FL      34  5  33(38)  14(52)   2(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
VENICE FL      50  X   6( 6)   7(13)   1(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)
VENICE FL      64  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
TAMPA FL       34  2  21(23)  21(44)   4(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)
TAMPA FL       50  X   2( 2)   9(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
TAMPA FL       64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   8( 8)  15(23)   8(31)   2(33)   X(33)   1(34)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)   2(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   6(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34 22  14(36)   4(40)   2(42)   X(42)   1(43)   X(43)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 15   4(19)   2(21)   X(21)   X(21)   1(22)   X(22)
 
ANDROS         34 13   3(16)   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HAVANA         34  9   3(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  8   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 244N  806W 34 88   4(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
 12 244N  806W 50 32  15(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
 12 244N  806W 64  4   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
 24 263N  812W 34 35  41(76)   6(82)   X(82)   1(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 24 263N  812W 50  1  27(28)   6(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 24 263N  812W 64  X   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
 36 285N  811W 34  3  23(26)  29(55)   7(62)   1(63)   1(64)   X(64)
 36 285N  811W 50  X   2( 2)  13(15)   4(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 36 285N  811W 64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
 48 309N  805W 34  X   2( 2)  16(18)  22(40)  10(50)   X(50)   1(51)
 48 309N  805W 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   5(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 48 309N  805W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
 
 72 360N  790W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  18(20)   5(25)   1(26)
 72 360N  790W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 72 360N  790W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 96 395N  795W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   7(13)   2(15)
 96 395N  795W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 96 395N  795W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 430N  800W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)
120 430N  800W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
120 430N  800W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     55     55      45      60      30      25      25
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:36 UTC