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Tropical Storm ERNESTO


ZCZC MIATCMAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
0900 UTC SUN AUG 27 2006

CORRECTED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  TO 990 MB
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN
EASTERN CUBA.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA
AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS LATER TODAY.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N  73.1W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  70SE  20SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..225NE 225SE  50SW  80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N  73.1W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  72.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.8N  74.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  15SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.3N  76.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  45SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.6N  78.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.1N  80.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 24.4N  83.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 26.5N  84.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 30.0N  81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N  73.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:35 UTC