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Tropical Depression ERNESTO


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  25...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
500 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006
 
...CORRECTED TO REMOVE INLAND AT THE 12 HR TIME...

THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA PRODUCING INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION AND A
FEW RAINBANDS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS REMAIN
ABOUT 30 KNOTS WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS.  THE CLOUD PATTERN
IS STILL ORGANIZED AND THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION.
THEREFORE...ERNESTO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RE-INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY ONCE
IT MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY GUIDANCE.
 
ERNESTO IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 010 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS AND SOON IT
WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. ON THIS TRACK..THE CENTER OF
ERNESTO WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND NEARING THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY.  TRACK MODELS ARE CLUSTERED AND BRING
ERNESTO TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS.
BECAUSE THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND ON
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
EXTENDED EASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT.  ONCE INLAND AND BEYOND 48
HOURS...ERNESTO SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/2100Z 27.6N  80.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     31/0600Z 29.5N  80.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     31/1800Z 32.4N  79.7W    45 KT
 36HR VT     01/0600Z 35.0N  79.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     01/1800Z 37.5N  78.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     02/1800Z 43.5N  80.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     03/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:36 UTC