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Tropical Storm ERNESTO


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
500 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONVECTIVE BURSTING PATTERN HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER OF ERNESTO. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INVESTING THE CYCLONE HAS MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004
MB...BUT WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 35 KT. THEREFORE...THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS CONSERVATIVELY ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB. MAXIMUM 850 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN 48 KT SO FAR...BUT AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT
OVER PASS INDICATED HI-RESOLUTION WINDS OF 40-45 KT IN THE
NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS JUST OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...AS A
RESULT...THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 325/10. THE RECON FIXES HAVE BEEN
JUMPING AROUND AS NEW CONVECTIVE BURSTS DEVELOP AND THE CENTER HAS
MOVED NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...RADAR DATA FROM CUBA ALSO INDICATES THAT
THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED...SO A MORE GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED SHORTLY. THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A POSSIBLE
LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
THE 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE THE LATEST NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET AIRCRAFT
DROPSONDE DATA IN THEM...AND THIS MAY EXPLAIN THE BETTER AGREEMENT
AND STRONGER CONVERGENCE OF THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS AS COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO
THE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE MORE NORTHWARD
POSITION NOTED IN RECON AND RADAR DATA...AND THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE
OF THE GUNA...GUNS...CONU...AND CCON CONSENSUS MODEL TRACKS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS QUITE COMPLICATED DUE TO POSSIBLE
LAND INTERACTIONS WITH CUBA. IF ERNESTO EMERGES SOONER AND A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH OFF THE COAST OF CUBA...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE
MORE TIME TO STRENGTHEN OVER VERY WARM SSTS OF 86-88F AND IN A VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS
FORECASTING NEAR-ZERO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...JUST AS ERNESTO IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/0900Z 19.6N  75.4W    45 KT
 12HR VT     28/1800Z 20.8N  76.3W    45 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     29/0600Z 22.2N  78.2W    55 KT
 36HR VT     29/1800Z 23.7N  80.0W    65 KT
 48HR VT     30/0600Z 25.5N  80.6W    75 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     31/0600Z 29.6N  81.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     01/0600Z 32.5N  79.5W    70 KT
120HR VT     02/0600Z 36.5N  74.5W    75 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:36 UTC