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Tropical Storm ERNESTO


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006
 
THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 00Z INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS
UNCHANGED AT 997 MB.  THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE 850 MB FLIGHT
LEVEL WERE 56 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 45 KT AT THE SURFACE.
SINCE THE PRESSURE WAS STEADY AND SINCE THE AIRCRAFT MIGHT NOT HAVE
MEASURED THE MAXIMUM WIND...AND CONSIDERING 00 UTC DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES WERE A CONSENSUS 3.5 OR 55 KT...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 50 KT.  SOME VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAD BEEN PULSATING NEAR
AND TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT RECENTLY IT HAS
EXPANDED AND BECOME MORE PERSISTENT NEAR THE CENTER.  THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
RETREAT WESTWARD...AND THE RESTRICTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
TO THE WEST APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY LESSENING.  ANOTHER AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ERNESTO IN A
FEW HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/12...ALTHOUGH WITH ONLY
INFRARED IMAGERY THIS REMAINS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.  HOWEVER...THE
VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
ERNESTO WILL MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE
TOWARD AND THEN NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA.  AFTER REACHING
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE MODEL TRACKS DIVERGE AS STEERING CURRENTS
SLACKEN WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WITH SOLUTIONS AS FAR WEST
AS THE GFDN THAT TAKES ERNESTO TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF...AND AS FAR
EAST AS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AS SHOWN BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE
NOGAPS.  IN THE MIDDLE BUT SLOWER IS THE GFDL AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE.  GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AND THAT THE
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS NOT MOVED MUCH...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
HAS CHANGED LITTLE AT THESE LONG RANGES AND IS JUST NUDGED A LITTLE
TO THE RIGHT DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS.
 
A SIGNIFICANT COMPLICATION IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE
POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH LAND...PRIMARILY CUBA.  IF THE CENTER OF
ERNESTO TAKES A PATH JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK...IT COULD SPEND QUITE A BIT OF TIME OVER CUBA AND WEAKEN
SUBSTANTIALLY BETWEEN ABOUT 24 AND 48 HOURS FROM NOW.  HOWEVER...IF
THE CENTER TAKES A PATH FARTHER LEFT IT WOULD SPEND VERY LITTLE
TIME OVER CUBA.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME INTERACTION WITH CUBA...BUT IT SHOWS
ONLY A SLIGHTLY LESSER INTENSITY OVER THE GULF THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  IT IS IMPORTANT...HOWEVER...TO REITERATE THAT ERNESTO
COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0300Z 16.8N  72.7W    50 KT
 12HR VT     27/1200Z 17.8N  74.2W    55 KT
 24HR VT     28/0000Z 19.2N  76.3W    65 KT
 36HR VT     28/1200Z 20.5N  78.5W    75 KT
 48HR VT     29/0000Z 21.8N  80.6W    85 KT
 72HR VT     30/0000Z 24.0N  84.0W    80 KT
 96HR VT     31/0000Z 26.5N  86.5W    90 KT
120HR VT     01/0000Z 29.0N  87.0W   100 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:36 UTC