Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm DEBBY


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006
500 PM EDT WED AUG 23 2006
 
THE ORGANIZATION OF DEBBY HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER RUNNING NORTHWESTWARD AHEAD
OF DECAYING CONVECTION. WHILE THIS IS PARTLY DIURNAL...DEBBY IS
MOVING THROUGH A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS AND OVER 26C WATERS.
DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE DOWN SHARPLY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 40 KT. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT...AT BEST...ONLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...BUT DEBBY WILL BE MOVING BACK OVER WARMER WATERS AFTER THAT.
ALTHOUGH DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER SOUTHERLY SHEAR FROM AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...BOTH THE SHIPS AND
GFDL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THIS SHOULD NOT PREVENT A
RESTRENGTHENING AND THE LONGER RANGE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

DEBBY CONTINUES TO GAIN LATITUDE AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
305/17. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
THINKING AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK. DEBBY CONTINUES
TO BE STEERED BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD AROUND
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
NEAR THE AZORES. A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  GUIDANCE IS
UNANIMOUS ON A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TROUGH...WITH DIFFERENCES ONLY IN THE RATE OF RECURVATURE. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE GUNA
CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/2100Z 17.9N  33.0W    40 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 19.0N  35.4W    40 KT
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 20.3N  38.3W    45 KT
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 21.5N  41.2W    50 KT
 48HR VT     25/1800Z 22.8N  44.0W    55 KT
 72HR VT     26/1800Z 25.5N  48.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     27/1800Z 28.5N  51.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     28/1800Z 32.0N  52.0W    65 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:35 UTC