Tropical Storm DEBBY

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006
500 PM EDT WED AUG 23 2006
 
THE ORGANIZATION OF DEBBY HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER RUNNING NORTHWESTWARD AHEAD
OF DECAYING CONVECTION. WHILE THIS IS PARTLY DIURNAL...DEBBY IS
MOVING THROUGH A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS AND OVER 26C WATERS.
DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE DOWN SHARPLY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 40 KT. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT...AT BEST...ONLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...BUT DEBBY WILL BE MOVING BACK OVER WARMER WATERS AFTER THAT.
ALTHOUGH DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER SOUTHERLY SHEAR FROM AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...BOTH THE SHIPS AND
GFDL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THIS SHOULD NOT PREVENT A
RESTRENGTHENING AND THE LONGER RANGE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

DEBBY CONTINUES TO GAIN LATITUDE AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
305/17. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
THINKING AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK. DEBBY CONTINUES
TO BE STEERED BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD AROUND
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
NEAR THE AZORES. A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  GUIDANCE IS
UNANIMOUS ON A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TROUGH...WITH DIFFERENCES ONLY IN THE RATE OF RECURVATURE. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE GUNA
CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/2100Z 17.9N  33.0W    40 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 19.0N  35.4W    40 KT
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 20.3N  38.3W    45 KT
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 21.5N  41.2W    50 KT
 48HR VT     25/1800Z 22.8N  44.0W    55 KT
 72HR VT     26/1800Z 25.5N  48.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     27/1800Z 28.5N  51.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     28/1800Z 32.0N  52.0W    65 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
NNNN