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Tropical Storm CHRIS


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 04 2006

CHRIS HAS MANAGED TO REMAIN AS A TROPICAL STORM ALTHOUGH CONVECTION
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY
WEAKENING.  A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS INVESTIGATING THE
CYCLONE AND FOUND A 53 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WIND.  HOWEVER...THE WIND
WAS MEASURED IN A THUNDERSTORM WHICH IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
ACTUAL INTENSITY.  OVERALL THE AIRCRAFT HAS ONLY MEASURED 30 TO 35
KT WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL.  EVEN THOUGH THESE WINDS DO NOT CURRENTLY
SUPPORT A TROPICAL STORM...CONVECTION IS STILL PRESENT AND CLOSE TO
THE CENTER...SO THE PRUDENT COURSE OF ACTION IS TO MAINTAIN AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.  HOWEVER...CHRIS COULD EASILY BE
DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT ADVISORY. 

THE CYCLONE IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOWS...AND
IS STILL BEING AFFECTED BY MODERATE SHEAR.  A POSSIBILITY EXISTS
THAT THE SHEAR COULD RELAX IN THE NEAR TERM WHICH WOULD MAINTAIN
CHRIS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST...AND THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION OF THE SHIPS MODEL.
MOST OF THE OTHER INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DISSIPATION.  

THE 6-HOURLY AVERAGED MOTION IS 275/13...WHICH IS A SLIGHTLY FASTER
MOTION THAN EARLIER.  THE STEERING PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED AND
CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WESTERLY TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF A
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS...IF IT LASTS THAT LONG.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.   

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0900Z 20.9N  70.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     04/1800Z 21.2N  72.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     05/0600Z 21.5N  75.3W    35 KT
 36HR VT     05/1800Z 22.0N  78.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     06/0600Z 22.6N  80.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     07/0600Z 24.0N  85.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     08/0600Z 24.5N  91.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     09/0600Z 25.0N  96.0W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:35 UTC