Tropical Storm CHRIS

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TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006
 
BASED ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS.  RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUADELOUPE SHOW SOME FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED
SPIRAL RAIN BANDS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 35 KT...35 KT...AND 25 KT RESPECTIVELY. 
SINCE THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF STRENGTHENING...THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT.  CHRIS IS IN A RATHER ANTICYCLONIC
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AS EVIDENCED BY HIGH SEA LEVEL
PRESSURES OVER THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN
FACT...THE 850 MB ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY IS A SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE
PREDICTOR IN THE 12Z SHIPS MODEL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR CHRIS. 
NORTHERLY SHEAR IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE SYSTEM AND THIS IS
INHIBITING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.  AS
NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CHRIS COULD BECOME FAVORABLY
SITUATED IN A COL REGION BETWEEN TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS MIGHT LEAD TO A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT AND IS ABOVE THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CONSENSUS...ICON.  IT SHOULD NOTED THAT THE
GFS...U.K. MET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS ESSENTIALLY
DISSIPATE CHRIS WITHIN 5 DAYS.

EVEN WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES...THE CENTER IS NOT
WELL-DEFINED.  HOWEVER THE ADVISORY LOCATION IS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE GUADELOUPE RADAR OBSERVATIONS.  INITIAL MOTION
IS ESTIMATED AT 295/9.  CHRIS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF
A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA.  A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL
LOW...IS NOW IN THE VICINITY OF 70W LONGITUDE.  THIS WEAKNESS IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD WHILE A RIDGE IS MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH
OF CHRIS.  THIS STEERING REGIME SHOULD MAINTAIN THE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS.

AIR FORCE RECON ARE SCHEDULED TO MAKE AN 1800 UTC FIX ON CHRIS.  WE
EXPECT THE AIRCRAFT DATA TO PROVIDE US WITH A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
LOCATION...STRENGTH...AND STRUCTURE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
TODAY. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/1500Z 17.3N  60.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     02/0000Z 17.9N  61.9W    40 KT
 24HR VT     02/1200Z 18.8N  64.1W    45 KT
 36HR VT     03/0000Z 19.7N  66.3W    50 KT
 48HR VT     03/1200Z 20.4N  68.4W    50 KT
 72HR VT     04/1200Z 21.7N  72.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     05/1200Z 23.0N  75.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     06/1200Z 24.0N  78.5W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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