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NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Depression TWO


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2         
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022006               
2100 UTC TUE JUL 18 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   8(14)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   7(17)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)
MONCTON NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)
ST JOHN NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   6(13)
EASTPORT ME    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   5(13)
BAR HARBOR ME  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   5(12)
AUGUSTA ME     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   3(13)
PORTLAND ME    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
CONCORD NH     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   2(14)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  10(16)   3(19)
BOSTON MA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  14(23)   3(26)
HYANNIS MA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
HYANNIS MA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  15(25)   4(29)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   1(10)
NANTUCKET MA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)  11(21)   3(24)
PROVIDENCE RI  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   9(19)   2(21)
HARTFORD CT    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)  11(25)   2(27)
MONTAUK POINT  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)
 
NEW YORK CITY  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)  12(18)   7(25)   2(27)
NEW YORK CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  11(16)   7(23)   1(24)
NEWARK NJ      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)  11(18)   6(24)   1(25)
TRENTON NJ     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   9(13)  14(27)   6(33)   1(34)
ATLANTIC CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)
ATLANTIC CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)  10(19)   3(22)   X(22)
BALTIMORE MD   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   9(15)  12(27)   4(31)   1(32)
DOVER DE       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   6(11)  11(22)   3(25)   X(25)
ANNAPOLIS MD   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)   9(19)   2(21)   1(22)
WASHINGTON DC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   4( 4)  10(14)  11(25)  12(37)   6(43)   X(43)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)   1(13)   X(13)
OCEAN CITY MD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   3( 3)   8(11)   8(19)   9(28)   2(30)   1(31)
RICHMOND VA    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  1   6( 7)  17(24)  13(37)   9(46)   2(48)   X(48)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   5(12)   1(13)   X(13)
NORFOLK VA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   6(14)   5(19)   1(20)   1(21)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  4  28(32)  19(51)   8(59)   5(64)   1(65)   X(65)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   4( 4)   9(13)   7(20)   3(23)   1(24)   X(24)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  2  15(17)  16(33)   8(41)   6(47)   1(48)   X(48)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   4(13)   X(13)   X(13)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  1   4( 5)  10(15)   6(21)   7(28)   1(29)   X(29)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   4(11)   5(16)   1(17)   X(17)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 337N  737W 34 63  14(77)   3(80)   1(81)   2(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 12 337N  737W 50  8  10(18)   3(21)   2(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 12 337N  737W 64  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
 24 344N  742W 34 41  27(68)   7(75)   3(78)   2(80)   1(81)   X(81)
 24 344N  742W 50  3  14(17)   6(23)   4(27)   1(28)   2(30)   X(30)
 24 344N  742W 64  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
 36 352N  746W 34 13  35(48)  16(64)   5(69)   4(73)   1(74)   X(74)
 36 352N  746W 50  X   8( 8)  12(20)   6(26)   3(29)   1(30)   X(30)
 36 352N  746W 64  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
 48 360N  746W 34  4  24(28)  21(49)   9(58)   6(64)   2(66)   X(66)
 48 360N  746W 50  X   3( 3)  11(14)   8(22)   5(27)   1(28)   1(29)
 48 360N  746W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
 
 72 374N  734W 34  1   6( 7)  16(23)  14(37)  14(51)   4(55)   2(57)
 72 374N  734W 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)  11(20)   3(23)   X(23)
 72 374N  734W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)
 
 
 96 395N  685W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)  17(30)   4(34)
 96 395N  685W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)
 96 395N  685W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
 
120 425N  600W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   9(14)
120 425N  600W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
120 425N  600W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     40     45      50      55      55      50      40
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
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