Tropical Storm BERYL

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TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022006
500 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006
 
LATEST RECON PASS AROUND 2030Z INDICATED A 57 KT 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002
MB. ALSO...A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT REPORTED A
SURFACE WIND OF 49 KT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND THE IMPROVING
STRUCTURE IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 50 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 005/07 KT. RADAR AND SATELLITE POSITION
ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN COMING IN 12-18 NMI WEST AND NORTHWEST OF RECON
POSITIONS...INDICATING SOME NORTHWESTWARD TILT OF THE VORTEX
COLUMN. BUT OVERALL...BERYL HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE
NORTH FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS BERYL MOVES NORTHWARD
THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS INFLUENCED MAINLY
BY DEEP SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR-DERIVED
WINDS FROM UW-CIMSS. MOST OF THE MODELS TAKE A WEAK AND VERTICALLY
SHALLOW BERYL INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST ANYWHERE FROM NEW
JERSEY EASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE THE
CANADIAN MODEL AND ESPECIALLY THE UKMET MODEL. HOWEVER... ALL OF
THE MODELS KEEP THE 500 MB CIRCULATION CENTER WELL OFFSHORE LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. MY FEELING IS THAT BERYL
WILL REMAIN A MORE VERTICALLY DEEP SYSTEM AND...THEREFORE... BE
STEERED MORE NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TWO FORECAST TRACKS AND THE UKMET AND CANADIAN MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GUNA MODEL. SHOULD BERYL
MOVE TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK... IT IS LIKELY TO
DO SO AS A VERY WEAK SYSTEM.
 
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND AROUND THE
CIRCULATION AND SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE CYCLONE CENTER REMAINS
OVER WARM WATER. BY 24-36 HOURS...BERYL WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-25C
SSTS RESULTING IN A WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE STORM TO THE WARM GULFSTREAM AND THE EXPECTED
CONTINUED INFLUX OF WARM UNSTABLE AIR IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED...WHICH
SHOULD ACT TO BOTH KEEP THE INTENSITY HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND
MAINTAIN A DEEP VERTICAL STRUCTURE THAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN THE
PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH.

DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED CLOSE APPROACH OF BERYL TO EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING
ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/2100Z 36.3N  73.5W    50 KT
 12HR VT     20/0600Z 37.4N  73.3W    55 KT
 24HR VT     20/1800Z 38.7N  72.6W    55 KT
 36HR VT     21/0600Z 40.3N  70.4W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     21/1800Z 42.1N  67.1W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     22/1800Z 45.4N  59.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     23/1800Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
 
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FORECASTER STEWART
 
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