Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm BERYL


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022006
1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006
 
LAST OBSERVATIONS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND DVORAK SATELLITE
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT BERYL IS NOT CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING. THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED AND DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED
TO A CURVED BAND MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. IN FACT...IT
SEEMS THAT THE CYCLONE IS SOMEWHAT ATTACHED TO A FRONTAL ZONE.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
COOLER WATER AND THE SHEAR INCREASES EVEN MORE. BERYL SHOULD BEGIN
TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS OR LESS.          

BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OF 350 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS AROUND
THE WEST SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN
GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST IN
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. SINCE
MOST OF THE RELIABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE TURN BERYL TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...I AM
KEEPING THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH UNTIL A DEFINITIVE TREND AWAY FROM
COAST BEGINS. THIS TREND COULD BEGIN AS SOON AS EARLY WEDNESDAY. 
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0300Z 34.1N  73.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     19/1200Z 35.0N  73.7W    40 KT
 24HR VT     20/0000Z 36.0N  73.6W    45 KT
 36HR VT     20/1200Z 37.5N  73.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     21/0000Z 39.5N  71.5W    50 KT
 72HR VT     22/0000Z 42.0N  67.0W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     23/0000Z 43.0N  61.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     24/0000Z 44.5N  56.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:33 UTC