Tropical Storm BERYL

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TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022006
1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006
 
LAST OBSERVATIONS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND DVORAK SATELLITE
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT BERYL IS NOT CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING. THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED AND DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED
TO A CURVED BAND MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. IN FACT...IT
SEEMS THAT THE CYCLONE IS SOMEWHAT ATTACHED TO A FRONTAL ZONE.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
COOLER WATER AND THE SHEAR INCREASES EVEN MORE. BERYL SHOULD BEGIN
TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS OR LESS.          

BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OF 350 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS AROUND
THE WEST SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN
GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST IN
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. SINCE
MOST OF THE RELIABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE TURN BERYL TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...I AM
KEEPING THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH UNTIL A DEFINITIVE TREND AWAY FROM
COAST BEGINS. THIS TREND COULD BEGIN AS SOON AS EARLY WEDNESDAY. 
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0300Z 34.1N  73.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     19/1200Z 35.0N  73.7W    40 KT
 24HR VT     20/0000Z 36.0N  73.6W    45 KT
 36HR VT     20/1200Z 37.5N  73.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     21/0000Z 39.5N  71.5W    50 KT
 72HR VT     22/0000Z 42.0N  67.0W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     23/0000Z 43.0N  61.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     24/0000Z 44.5N  56.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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FORECASTER AVILA
 
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