Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm ALBERTO


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006
500 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006
 
ALTHOUGH THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PASS THROUGH ALBERTO NEAR
05Z FOUND ONLY A FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A MINIMUM OF 1006 MB
AND NO CLEAR CENTER...THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE
THEN.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND BUILT WESTWARD AGAINST THE
SHEAR...AND THE LOW-CLOUD LINES IN THE NIGHT-VIS IMAGERY SUGGEST
THAT A CENTER IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED JUST TO THE WEST OF THIS
CONVECTION.  A DROPSONDE ON THE EDGE OF THE CONVECTION REPORTED 40
KT AT THE SURFACE AT 06Z...AND THE PRESSURE AT BUOY 42003 HAS
FALLEN TO 1002.9 MB.  BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT.  THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT THREE HOURS.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/7.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF ALBERTO...WHICH IS STILL EMBEDDED
IN A ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  HOWEVER...THE
UKMET AND NOGAPS BOTH DROP AN UPPER LOW INTO THE WESTERN GULF THAT
BACKS THE FLOW JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK THAN THE
CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND
MOST CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE GFS...WHICH HAD BEEN INDICATING A
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST.

NONE OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
WILL DECREASE DRAMATICALLY...BUT IF THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE
CORRECT IT WILL DECREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME FURTHER ORGANIZATION. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.

THE LARGE EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS DICTATES A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AT THIS TIME.  THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.

 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0900Z 26.2N  87.2W    45 KT
 12HR VT     12/1800Z 27.1N  86.7W    50 KT
 24HR VT     13/0600Z 28.1N  85.6W    55 KT
 36HR VT     13/1800Z 29.5N  83.7W    55 KT
 48HR VT     14/0600Z 31.0N  81.5W    45 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     15/0600Z 35.0N  73.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     16/0600Z 41.5N  64.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     17/0600Z 46.5N  52.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:33 UTC