Tropical Depression ONE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006
1100 AM EDT SAT JUN 10 2006
 
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT NEW DATA TO COME IN SINCE THE SPECIAL ADVISORY
WAS A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT ABOUT 1115Z.  AS IS OFTEN THE CASE FOR
SYSTEMS WITH 30-35 KT WINDS... IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT QUIKSCAT
GREATLY OVERESTIMATED THE WIND SPEEDS IN RAIN-CONTAMINATED AREAS IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION.  OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN
AREAS... THE RETRIEVED WINDS WERE AS STRONG AS 25-30 KT... SO
HOLDING THE ESTIMATE FOR THE MAXIMUM WINDS AT 30 KT SEEMS
REASONABLE.
 
THE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH SEVERAL SMALL
CIRCULATIONS ROTATING ABOUT A MEAN CENTER.  THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS STILL 340/10 BUT REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN.  THE
DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED IN BETWEEN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  LACKING ANY NEW TRACK GUIDANCE... THE
SCENARIOS PAINTED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY ALL REMAIN
POSSIBILITIES.  THE GFS AND GFDL RECURVE THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD
AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE CANADIAN MODELS STALLS THE SYSTEM OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... AND THE UKMET TURNS IT WESTWARD
TOWARD TEXAS.  MEANWHILE THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF MODELS SPLIT THE
DEPRESSION INTO MULTIPLE LOWS... WITH THE LARGER ONE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS AND GFDL TRACKS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL TREAT THIS AS A SINGLE RECURVING SYSTEM THAT
SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES.  AS STATED PREVIOUSLY... THERE IS A GREATER THAN AVERAGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TRACK FORECAST.
 
MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST BY ALL THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS TO DOMINATE OVER THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
BEYOND ABOUT 36 HOURS.  THIS SHOULD PRODUCE PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR TO
LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM... AND INTENSIFICATION INTO A
HURRICANE APPEARS UNLIKELY IN THAT ENVIRONMENT.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST AGAIN PEAKS AT 50 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF... GENERALLY IN BETWEEN THE GFDL AND SHIPS
SOLUTIONS.
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/1500Z 21.5N  85.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     11/0000Z 22.9N  86.1W    40 KT
 24HR VT     11/1200Z 24.7N  86.8W    45 KT
 36HR VT     12/0000Z 26.5N  86.5W    50 KT
 48HR VT     12/1200Z 27.8N  85.2W    50 KT
 72HR VT     13/1200Z 31.0N  81.0W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     14/1200Z 36.5N  74.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     15/1200Z 45.0N  63.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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