Hurricane DENNIS

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HURRICANE DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005

...DENNIS NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY
TORTUGAS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF
AND FLORIDA BAY.  A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND
FLORIDA BAY.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...
VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...
CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING PROVINCES OF
CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...AND HOLGUIN.
 
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST AND SOUTH
OF BONITA BEACH ON THE WEST COAST.
 
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD...ALL OF
JAMAICA...AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST OR ABOUT 90
MILES... 145 KM... SOUTHEAST OF CABO CRUZ IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND
ABOUT 125 MILES... 200 KM...SOUTHWEST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS
TRACK THE CENTER WILL PASS VERY NEAR CABO CRUZ TONIGHT...AND BE
VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA ON FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT
DENNIS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE NOW NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  DENNIS IS A
DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. 
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES
CENTRAL CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
 
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER HAITI...JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. 
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA
MAESTRA MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CUBA EAST OF
CABO CRUZ.  A MUCH LARGER STORM SURGE OF NEAR 20 FEET IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA WEST OF CABO CRUZ.  A STORM SURGE
OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...19.0 N... 76.6 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 957 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH
  
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