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Tropical Storm ARLENE


ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005
 
...LARGE ARLENE DRENCHING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA ON ITS WAY TO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...

AT 5 PM...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM ST MARKS FLORIDA TO
STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA...AND THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN
EXTENDED EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER
FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS.
 
AT 5 PM...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND
AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST
OR ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AND ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.
 
THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED...AND ARLENE IS NOW MOVING JUST WEST
OF DUE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
ON SATURDAY. ARLENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL STORM...AND MOST OF THE
ASSOCIATED RAIN AND WINDS WILL ARRIVE MUCH EARLIER THAN THE CENTER.
 
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ARLENE COULD REACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES... MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
 
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND MOST OF FLORIDA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE REGIONS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 7 INCHES. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH ARLENE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...TENNESSEE VALLEY AND OHIO
VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO THIS WEEKEND. STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF
4 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK OF
ARLENE...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN GULF COAST STATES.
 
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
 
ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND
WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT.
 
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...25.7 N... 85.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.
 
FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 10-Jun-2005 20:55:00 UTC