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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON OCT 17 2005

SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON
THE DEPRESSION.  WHAT LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS IS DISPLACED
TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS
ARE DOWN TO 1.0 FROM TAFB AND 1.5 FROM SAB AND AFWA...HENCE THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
NEIGHBORING ITCZ IS REMARKABLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH
INDICATES A LARGE-SCALE STABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS.  ALTHOUGH
THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...THE CURRENT LACK OF CONVECTION...SMALL CIRCULATION
SIZE...AND DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR...SHOULD MITIGATE AGAINST
REGENERATION.  THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW IN 48-72 HOURS...BUT UNLESS DEEP CONVECTION MAKES A
SIGNIFICANT COMEBACK... DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR MUCH SOONER.

THE CENTER OF THE WELL-DEFINED LOW CLOUD SWIRL IS RATHER EASY TO
TRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 270/07.  A
LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHOULD BE MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... THEREFORE A CONTINUED WESTWARD
MOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...OR REMNANT LOW...IS PREDICTED. 
THIS IS CLOSE TO THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/1500Z 12.1N 106.2W    25 KT
 12HR VT     18/0000Z 12.1N 107.3W    25 KT
 24HR VT     18/1200Z 12.0N 108.9W    25 KT
 36HR VT     19/0000Z 12.0N 110.5W    25 KT
 48HR VT     19/1200Z 12.0N 112.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     20/1200Z 12.0N 115.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     21/1200Z 12.0N 119.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
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Page last modified: Monday, 17-Oct-2005 14:40:26 UTC