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Hurricane OTIS


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005
 
THE WEAKENING TREND HAS CONTINUED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE
CONVECTION IS NOW LIMITED TO THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
CIRCULATION AND IS NOT VERY DEEP. T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED AND
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE PROBABLY
CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. OTIS IS
ALREADY BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR...WITH DRY AIR TO ITS WEST...AND COOLER WATERS. THEREFORE
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE RATE INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.

OTIS HAS NOT BEEN MOVING VERY MUCH DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS OR
SO...BUT IT NOW APPEARS TO HAVE STARTED MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND 6 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING SHALLOW...AND WILL PROBABLY
BE STEERED VERY SLOWLY BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR A VERY SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY MOTION...ON A
TRACK PARALLELING THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 

SINCE OTIS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS...ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
REMAINS UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/2100Z 23.0N 112.3W    40 KT
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 23.7N 112.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 24.8N 113.2W    30 KT
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 26.0N 114.0W    25 KT
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 27.5N 114.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     05/1800Z 28.5N 114.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     06/1800Z 29.0N 114.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATED
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Sunday, 02-Oct-2005 20:40:26 UTC