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Hurricane OTIS


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005

SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR FROM LO CABOS INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED SINCE YESTERDAY. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
EXPOSED AND IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION WHICH IN FACT
HAS BECOME LIMITED. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 55 KNOTS.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE AS
INDICATED BY SHIPS MODEL...AND OTIS IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND
AND WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE IN 3 TO 5 DAYS. 

OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/1500Z 23.0N 111.7W    55 KT
 12HR VT     03/0000Z 23.7N 112.0W    45 KT
 24HR VT     03/1200Z 25.0N 112.5W    35 KT
 36HR VT     04/0000Z 26.5N 113.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     04/1200Z 28.5N 113.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     05/1200Z 30.0N 112.9W    20 KT
 96HR VT     06/1200Z 32.0N 113.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Sunday, 02-Oct-2005 14:40:25 UTC