ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005 SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR FROM LO CABOS INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED SINCE YESTERDAY. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED AND IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION WHICH IN FACT HAS BECOME LIMITED. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 55 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE AS INDICATED BY SHIPS MODEL...AND OTIS IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND AND WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE IN 3 TO 5 DAYS. OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 23.0N 111.7W 55 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 23.7N 112.0W 45 KT 24HR VT 03/1200Z 25.0N 112.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 04/0000Z 26.5N 113.0W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 04/1200Z 28.5N 113.0W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 05/1200Z 30.0N 112.9W 20 KT 96HR VT 06/1200Z 32.0N 113.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 02-Oct-2005 14:40:25 UTC