Hurricane OTIS

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HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005
 
OTIS HAS DEVELOPED A RAGGED EYE WHICH CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON
CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA. BOTH OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS 65 KNOTS...MAKING OTIS A HURRICANE. ALTHOUGH
THE SHEAR IS LOW...THE CYCLONE HAS ONLY 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE A
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS.
THEREFORE...INTENSIFICATION IS ONLY SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
THROUGH 36 HOURS.
 
SATELLITE DATA AND RADAR FROM LOS CABOS SUGGEST THAT OTIS IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS
MOVING AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD FORCE OTIS TO MOVE ON A TRACK BETWEEN NORTHWEST
AND NORTH-NORTHWEST...PARALLELING BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER
...OTIS SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND APPROACH THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS WHICH BRING OTIS TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE GFDL KEEPS THE
HURRICANE PARALLELING AND NEAR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA UNTIL
DISSIPATION OVER COOLER WATERS. 
  
THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING STRONGER
WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY OR
SATURDAY. NO CHANGES IN WARNINGS OR WATCHES ARE REQUIRED AT THIS
TIME.

FORECASTER AVILA
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0900Z 20.7N 110.3W    65 KT
 12HR VT     30/1800Z 21.5N 110.9W    70 KT
 24HR VT     01/0600Z 22.4N 111.6W    75 KT
 36HR VT     01/1800Z 23.0N 112.0W    75 KT
 48HR VT     02/0600Z 24.0N 112.5W    70 KT
 72HR VT     03/0600Z 25.5N 113.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     04/0600Z 27.5N 114.0W    45 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     05/0600Z 30.5N 114.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 
 
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