ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005 OTIS HAS DEVELOPED A RAGGED EYE WHICH CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA. BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 65 KNOTS...MAKING OTIS A HURRICANE. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS LOW...THE CYCLONE HAS ONLY 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS. THEREFORE...INTENSIFICATION IS ONLY SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 36 HOURS. SATELLITE DATA AND RADAR FROM LOS CABOS SUGGEST THAT OTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE OTIS TO MOVE ON A TRACK BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST...PARALLELING BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER ...OTIS SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND APPROACH THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH BRING OTIS TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE GFDL KEEPS THE HURRICANE PARALLELING AND NEAR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER COOLER WATERS. THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY OR SATURDAY. NO CHANGES IN WARNINGS OR WATCHES ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0900Z 20.7N 110.3W 65 KT 12HR VT 30/1800Z 21.5N 110.9W 70 KT 24HR VT 01/0600Z 22.4N 111.6W 75 KT 36HR VT 01/1800Z 23.0N 112.0W 75 KT 48HR VT 02/0600Z 24.0N 112.5W 70 KT 72HR VT 03/0600Z 25.5N 113.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 04/0600Z 27.5N 114.0W 45 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 05/0600Z 30.5N 114.0W 35 KT...INLAND $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 30-Sep-2005 08:40:20 UTC