Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm NORMA


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2005
 
AN SSMI OVERPASS NEAR 04Z SUGGESTS THE CENTER MAY BE A LITTLE NORTH
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND A SMALL ADJUSTMENT TO THE RIGHT HAS
BEEN MADE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/7. THE CURRENT STEERING IS
BEING PROVIDED BY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO AND THEN BUILD
WESTWARD. BY THAT TIME...NORMA WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS
AND BE INCREASINGLY STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...LARGELY
BECAUSE OF THE ADJUSTMENT IN THE INITIAL POSITION...AND IS NEAR THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE PAST FEW IR IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE
FORWARD SPEED MAY BE INCREASING...BUT I WOULD RATHER WAIT FOR
CONFIRMATION BY SUBSEQUENT MICROWAVE DATA BEFORE MAKING SUCH AN
ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST TRACK.

THE CENTER REMAINS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...
WHICH HAS DIMINISHED SHARPLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z RANGED FROM 35 TO 45 KT.  A QUIKSCAT
PASS AT 01Z JUST MISSED THE CENTER...BUT THERE WERE SOME 40 KT
VECTORS DOWNWIND OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND SO THE INTENSITY WILL
BE HELD AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE PASS ALSO SUGGESTED THAT
THE WIND RADII NEEDED TO BE EXPANDED.  MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR STILL APPEARS TO BE AFFECTING THE ORGANIZATION
OF NORMA...AND WITHIN ANOTHER 24 HOURS COOLER WATERS BECOME AN
ADDITIONAL DRAG ON THE CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.  IF NORMA IS INDEED MOVING MORE TO THE
RIGHT OR FASTER THAN PRESUMED HERE THEN DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT
LOW COULD OCCUR IN AS LITTLE AS 24 HOURS.

 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0900Z 19.4N 113.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     26/1800Z 20.3N 114.3W    40 KT
 24HR VT     27/0600Z 21.1N 115.3W    35 KT
 36HR VT     27/1800Z 21.5N 116.3W    30 KT
 48HR VT     28/0600Z 21.5N 117.4W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     29/0600Z 21.0N 119.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     30/0600Z 20.5N 121.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     01/0600Z 20.0N 123.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 26-Sep-2005 09:10:23 UTC