Tropical Storm NORMA

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TROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2005
 
AN SSMI OVERPASS NEAR 04Z SUGGESTS THE CENTER MAY BE A LITTLE NORTH
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND A SMALL ADJUSTMENT TO THE RIGHT HAS
BEEN MADE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/7. THE CURRENT STEERING IS
BEING PROVIDED BY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO AND THEN BUILD
WESTWARD. BY THAT TIME...NORMA WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS
AND BE INCREASINGLY STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...LARGELY
BECAUSE OF THE ADJUSTMENT IN THE INITIAL POSITION...AND IS NEAR THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE PAST FEW IR IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE
FORWARD SPEED MAY BE INCREASING...BUT I WOULD RATHER WAIT FOR
CONFIRMATION BY SUBSEQUENT MICROWAVE DATA BEFORE MAKING SUCH AN
ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST TRACK.

THE CENTER REMAINS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...
WHICH HAS DIMINISHED SHARPLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z RANGED FROM 35 TO 45 KT.  A QUIKSCAT
PASS AT 01Z JUST MISSED THE CENTER...BUT THERE WERE SOME 40 KT
VECTORS DOWNWIND OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND SO THE INTENSITY WILL
BE HELD AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE PASS ALSO SUGGESTED THAT
THE WIND RADII NEEDED TO BE EXPANDED.  MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR STILL APPEARS TO BE AFFECTING THE ORGANIZATION
OF NORMA...AND WITHIN ANOTHER 24 HOURS COOLER WATERS BECOME AN
ADDITIONAL DRAG ON THE CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.  IF NORMA IS INDEED MOVING MORE TO THE
RIGHT OR FASTER THAN PRESUMED HERE THEN DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT
LOW COULD OCCUR IN AS LITTLE AS 24 HOURS.

 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0900Z 19.4N 113.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     26/1800Z 20.3N 114.3W    40 KT
 24HR VT     27/0600Z 21.1N 115.3W    35 KT
 36HR VT     27/1800Z 21.5N 116.3W    30 KT
 48HR VT     28/0600Z 21.5N 117.4W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     29/0600Z 21.0N 119.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     30/0600Z 20.5N 121.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     01/0600Z 20.0N 123.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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