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Tropical Storm NORMA


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN SEP 25 2005
 
EVEN WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY...THE CENTER LOCATION IS NOT YET OBVIOUS.
MY BEST ESTIMATE...USING THE LOW CLOUD LINES...IS THAT IT IS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT OBSCURED BY
CIRRUS CLOUDS...AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME RECENT SSM/I
IMAGERY.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FIXES FROM
THE VARIOUS AGENCIES.  NORMA REMAINS A POORLY-ORGANIZED TROPICAL
STORM AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEARING...DUE TO A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST...THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT NOT AS RAPIDLY AS CALLED FOR BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. 
NORMA SHOULD WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN 3-4 DAYS.

SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WORKING BEST TRACK HAVE BEEN MADE...BUT
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL NORTHWESTWARD...320/6.  A LARGE
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER TEXAS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A
SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING CURRENT.  THIS REGIME IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AFTERWARDS...A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE LEFT IS LIKELY...DUE TO BOTH A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND INCREASED STEERING OF THE WEAKENED SYSTEM BY
THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS QUITE SIMILAR TO ITS PREDECESSOR.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/2100Z 18.2N 112.4W    45 KT
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 19.0N 113.2W    45 KT
 24HR VT     26/1800Z 19.9N 114.2W    45 KT
 36HR VT     27/0600Z 20.7N 115.2W    40 KT
 48HR VT     27/1800Z 21.3N 116.4W    35 KT
 72HR VT     28/1800Z 21.5N 118.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     29/1800Z 21.0N 121.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     30/1800Z 20.5N 124.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Sunday, 25-Sep-2005 20:55:20 UTC