Tropical Storm NORMA
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TROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN SEP 25 2005
EVEN WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY...THE CENTER LOCATION IS NOT YET OBVIOUS.
MY BEST ESTIMATE...USING THE LOW CLOUD LINES...IS THAT IT IS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT OBSCURED BY
CIRRUS CLOUDS...AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME RECENT SSM/I
IMAGERY. THIS IS SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FIXES FROM
THE VARIOUS AGENCIES. NORMA REMAINS A POORLY-ORGANIZED TROPICAL
STORM AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEARING...DUE TO A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT NOT AS RAPIDLY AS CALLED FOR BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
NORMA SHOULD WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN 3-4 DAYS.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WORKING BEST TRACK HAVE BEEN MADE...BUT
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL NORTHWESTWARD...320/6. A LARGE
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER TEXAS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A
SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING CURRENT. THIS REGIME IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTERWARDS...A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE LEFT IS LIKELY...DUE TO BOTH A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND INCREASED STEERING OF THE WEAKENED SYSTEM BY
THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS QUITE SIMILAR TO ITS PREDECESSOR.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/2100Z 18.2N 112.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 19.0N 113.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 19.9N 114.2W 45 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 20.7N 115.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 21.3N 116.4W 35 KT
72HR VT 28/1800Z 21.5N 118.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 29/1800Z 21.0N 121.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 30/1800Z 20.5N 124.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
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