Tropical Storm NORMA

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TROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI SEP 23 2005
 
NORMA'S CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN
AREA OF CONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM AFWA...SAB...
AND TAFB RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KT.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT
40 KT.  THERE IS MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE
AREA...AND ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS FORECAST...AN EASTERLY
SHEARING REGIME WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 
HOWEVER...THIS SHEAR MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT SOME SLOW
STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE STORM REACHES COOLER WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL
WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 320/4.  NORMA LIES TO THE SOUTH OF A
WEAKENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE.  THERE IS DIVERSITY IN THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WITH THE GFDL SHOWING A GENERALLY NORTHWARD
TRACK...THE GFS FORECASTING A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AND THE
NOGAPS PREDICTING LITTLE MOVEMENT FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS FOLLOWED BY
A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK.  AS A COMPROMISE OF THIS GUIDANCE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/1500Z 15.6N 109.3W    40 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 16.1N 109.7W    45 KT
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 16.9N 110.3W    50 KT
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 17.7N 111.0W    55 KT
 48HR VT     25/1200Z 18.5N 111.7W    55 KT
 72HR VT     26/1200Z 20.0N 113.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     27/1200Z 21.5N 114.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     28/1200Z 22.5N 116.5W    35 KT
 
 
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