Tropical Storm MAX

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TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON SEP 19 2005

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND
STRENGTHENING OF TROPICAL STORM MAX. DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS THE
CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND HAS WRAPPED AROUND SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 3.5 OR 55 KT
FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  BASED OF THIS INFORMATION THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 55 KT. IMPROVED OUTFLOW FROM THE
CYCLONE HAS BECOME EVIDENT FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST TAKES MAX TO 60 KT IN 12 HOURS THEN SLOWLY
WEAKENS THE CYCLONE AS IT ENCOUNTERS WATERS BELOW 26 DEGREE CELSIUS
NORTH OF 18N OR 19N.  
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 315/8. A MID-LAYER RIDGE
EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM TEXAS SHOULD STEER MAX IN A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THEREAFTER
ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE STEERING MAX
ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS TRACK BUT IS A BIT SLOWER AND
TO THE SOUTH IN THE LATER PERIODS.
 
FORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/1500Z 16.7N 116.5W    55 KT
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 17.5N 117.5W    60 KT
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 18.7N 118.9W    55 KT
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 19.8N 120.1W    55 KT
 48HR VT     21/1200Z 20.5N 121.5W    50 KT
 72HR VT     22/1200Z 21.5N 124.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     23/1200Z 22.0N 127.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     24/1200Z 21.5N 130.0W    20 KT
 
 
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