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Tropical Storm LIDIA
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM LIDIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005
THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LIDIA HAS REDEVELOPED. DESPITE
THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE CYCLONE IS STILL STRUGGLING TO REMAIN
ORGANIZED. A HELPFUL 0933Z AMSR-E PASS REVEALED A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND STILL THIS
POSITION MAY NEED TO BE READJUSTED BASED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.0 OR 45 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN BUMPED UP TO 40 KT. LIDIA IS CURRENTLY BEING
INFLUENCED BY A DISTURBANCE 250 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY HELP TO INFLUENCE
BOTH THE FUTURE INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECAST.
THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN...AND SLOW...280/2.
TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS QUITE DIVERGENT DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
BETWEEN LIDIA AND THE DISTURBANCE. THERFORE...THE LARGE SCALE
STEERING MAY NOT HAVE AS MUCH IMPACT ON THE FORECAST TRACK. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK TAKES LIDIA VERY SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS
MAINLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGE OF THE CYCLONE HAS ARRIVED AND IT APPEARS
THAT LIDIA AND THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ARE POSSIBLY TRYING TO
MERGE. IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHETHER LIDIA WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT CIRCULATION OR BE OVERTAKEN BY THE LARGER CIRCULATION
TO THE NORTHEAST. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE UNUSUAL NATURE OF
THIS SCENARIO...THE CONFIDENCE OF THIS FORECAST IS VERY LOW.
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/1500Z 12.5N 115.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 12.6N 116.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 12.8N 116.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 13.2N 116.9W 45 KT
48HR VT 20/1200Z 13.6N 117.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 14.0N 118.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 22/1200Z 14.5N 119.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 23/1200Z 16.0N 121.5W 45 KT
$$
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