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Tropical Storm LIDIA


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM LIDIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005

LIDIA IS NOT LOOKING VERY IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT.  IN FACT...IT IS
NOT EASY TO DISTINGUISH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM THE BROADER AREA
OF DISTURBED WEATHER WITHIN WHICH IT IS EMBEDDED.  AS NOTED
EARLIER...DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLY BEING HINDERED BY THE INFLUENCE
OF A DISTURBANCE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED N MI TO THE NORTHEAST.
ONLY VERY SLOW STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...
AND UNLESS LIDIA STARTS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED SOON...SUBSEQUENT
INTENSITY FORECASTS WILL NEED TO BE REVISED DOWNWARD.

IT CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE TO FIND THE CENTER...BUT BASED ON AN
EARLIER...0419Z...SSM/I OVERPASS...IT HAS BEEN RELOCATED SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST.  ANOTHER RELOCATION MAY BE REQUIRED USING VISIBLE
IMAGES LATER TODAY.  FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH...MY CURRENT POSITION
ESTIMATE IS NOT FAR FROM WHERE SOME SMALL BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING.  THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY
UNCERTAIN...AND SLOW...270/2.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT
AND IT IS NOT CERTAIN HOW MUCH STEERING EFFECT WILL BE INDUCED AS A
RESULT OF THE INTERACTION WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTHEAST. 
AS A COMPROMISE FOR NOW...A VERY SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS
PREDICTED.  IT MUST BE ADMITTED...HOWEVER...THAT THERE IS NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.

 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0900Z 12.5N 115.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     18/1800Z 12.7N 116.2W    35 KT
 24HR VT     19/0600Z 12.9N 116.6W    40 KT
 36HR VT     19/1800Z 13.1N 117.0W    40 KT
 48HR VT     20/0600Z 13.4N 117.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     21/0600Z 14.0N 118.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     22/0600Z 14.5N 119.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     23/0600Z 15.0N 121.0W    45 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Sunday, 18-Sep-2005 08:40:21 UTC