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Hurricane KENNETH


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED SEP 21 2005
 
RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST THAT KENNETH IS MOVING A LITTLE
FASTER...320/6.  A WEAK MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE...BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW LONG THIS WILL BE THE
DECISIVE STEERING FEATURE.  THE GFS AND UKMET SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER
LOW AND/OR THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM MAX WILL MOVE WESTWARD
AND BEGIN TO ERODE THIS RIDGE.  THE GFS RESPONDS BY PULLING KENNETH
NORTHWARD UNDER THIS LOW...AND THE UKMET SHOWS A VERY SLOW MOTION
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS KEEPS
KENNETH UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND DRIVES THE CYCLONE WESTWARD.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE OPTIONS BUT
IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION...WHICH HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 03Z HAD A 50 KT VECTOR.  BASED ON THIS
AND THE FACT THAT CONVECTION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED...THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 50 KT.  THE PRESENT CONVECTIVE PATTERN
SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR IS NOT PROHIBITIVE AT THIS TIME...AND WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM.  THEREFORE KENNETH MAY BE SLOW TO SPIN
DOWN BEFORE COOLER WATERS ARE REACHED IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/1500Z 14.4N 132.3W    50 KT
 12HR VT     22/0000Z 14.9N 132.8W    45 KT
 24HR VT     22/1200Z 15.5N 133.2W    40 KT
 36HR VT     23/0000Z 15.9N 133.6W    35 KT
 48HR VT     23/1200Z 16.3N 134.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     24/1200Z 17.0N 135.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     25/1200Z 18.0N 136.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     26/1200Z 18.5N 137.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 21-Sep-2005 14:40:21 UTC