ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT WED SEP 21 2005 RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST THAT KENNETH IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...320/6. A WEAK MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW LONG THIS WILL BE THE DECISIVE STEERING FEATURE. THE GFS AND UKMET SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER LOW AND/OR THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM MAX WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND BEGIN TO ERODE THIS RIDGE. THE GFS RESPONDS BY PULLING KENNETH NORTHWARD UNDER THIS LOW...AND THE UKMET SHOWS A VERY SLOW MOTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS KEEPS KENNETH UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND DRIVES THE CYCLONE WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE OPTIONS BUT IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 03Z HAD A 50 KT VECTOR. BASED ON THIS AND THE FACT THAT CONVECTION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 50 KT. THE PRESENT CONVECTIVE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR IS NOT PROHIBITIVE AT THIS TIME...AND WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM. THEREFORE KENNETH MAY BE SLOW TO SPIN DOWN BEFORE COOLER WATERS ARE REACHED IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 14.4N 132.3W 50 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 14.9N 132.8W 45 KT 24HR VT 22/1200Z 15.5N 133.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 23/0000Z 15.9N 133.6W 35 KT 48HR VT 23/1200Z 16.3N 134.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 24/1200Z 17.0N 135.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 25/1200Z 18.0N 136.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 26/1200Z 18.5N 137.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 21-Sep-2005 14:40:21 UTC