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Hurricane KENNETH


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON SEP 19 2005

A VERY SMALL EYE CAN BE SEEN ON SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY. THE
NORTHERLY SHEAR...RESULTED BY THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER HURRICANE
JOVA TO THE WEST...CONTINUES TO IMPEDE THE CIRCULATION OF KENNETH. 
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ARE CONTINUING TO LOWER...DATA T-NUMBERS
ARE 5.5...102 KT FROM TAFB AND 5.0...90 KT FROM SAB.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 100 KT AT ADVISORY TIME. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE NORTHERLY
SHEAR CONTINUES TO HAMPER ANY FURTHER REDEVELOPMENT. 

THE CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...HOWEVER THE LAST FEW IMAGES HAVE INDICATED NEARLY
STATIONARY MOTION. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE DIVERGENT FOR THE
FIRST 24 HOURS...WHETHER TO TRACK KENNETH IN A SMALL LOOP OR MOVE
TO THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES THE CYCLONE SLOWLY TO
THE WEST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THEREAFTER.
KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FLOW ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...AND CLOSE TO CONU. 
 
FORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/1500Z 13.4N 130.5W   100 KT
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 13.4N 130.9W    90 KT
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 13.6N 131.3W    80 KT
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 13.9N 131.8W    70 KT
 48HR VT     21/1200Z 14.3N 132.3W    65 KT
 72HR VT     22/1200Z 15.9N 133.9W    60 KT
 96HR VT     23/1200Z 17.0N 135.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     24/1200Z 18.0N 136.5W    40 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Monday, 19-Sep-2005 20:55:21 UTC