Hurricane KENNETH

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HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON SEP 19 2005
 
UPPER LEVEL WIND ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE
UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER HURRICANE JOVA IS CREATING SOME NORTHERLY
SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF KENNETH. THIS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
ERODED THE EYEWALL...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE COLLAPSED OVER THE NORTH
QUADRANT. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED AND SO
HAS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE...WHICH IS SET AT 110 KT. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE NORTHERLY
SHEAR CONTINUES AND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. 
 
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER MAY HAVE MEANDERED A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTHWEST...THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEARLY STATIONARY. KENNETH IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOLLOWING THE FLOW
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND THE GFDL CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WHICH APPEARS TO BE DUE TO
SOME INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL STORM MAX TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE
RIGHT...AND IS A BLEND OF THE UKMET...NOGAPS AND THE GFDN.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0900Z 13.7N 130.5W   110 KT
 12HR VT     19/1800Z 13.7N 130.8W   100 KT
 24HR VT     20/0600Z 13.8N 131.2W    90 KT
 36HR VT     20/1800Z 14.0N 131.7W    80 KT
 48HR VT     21/0600Z 14.3N 132.5W    70 KT
 72HR VT     22/0600Z 15.5N 134.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     23/0600Z 17.0N 135.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     24/0600Z 18.0N 137.5W    45 KT
 
 
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