ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON SEP 19 2005 UPPER LEVEL WIND ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER HURRICANE JOVA IS CREATING SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF KENNETH. THIS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY ERODED THE EYEWALL...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE COLLAPSED OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED AND SO HAS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE...WHICH IS SET AT 110 KT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE NORTHERLY SHEAR CONTINUES AND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER MAY HAVE MEANDERED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEARLY STATIONARY. KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOLLOWING THE FLOW ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND THE GFDL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WHICH APPEARS TO BE DUE TO SOME INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL STORM MAX TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...AND IS A BLEND OF THE UKMET...NOGAPS AND THE GFDN. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 13.7N 130.5W 110 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 13.7N 130.8W 100 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 13.8N 131.2W 90 KT 36HR VT 20/1800Z 14.0N 131.7W 80 KT 48HR VT 21/0600Z 14.3N 132.5W 70 KT 72HR VT 22/0600Z 15.5N 134.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 23/0600Z 17.0N 135.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 24/0600Z 18.0N 137.5W 45 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 19-Sep-2005 20:55:21 UTC