Hurricane KENNETH

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HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED 20 NM WIDE EYE
SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS.  THIS YIELDS T NUMBERS OF 6.0
FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 5.5 FROM TAFB.  THE LATEST CIMSS AODT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS AROUND T 6.2.  THIS SUPPORTS INCREASING THE
INTENSITY TO 115 KT...WHICH MAKES KENNETH A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/6. TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND GFDL TURNING THE STORM NORTHWARD IN
36-48 HOURS...DUE TO AN INTERACTION WITH A DIGGING DEEP-LAYERED LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MEANWHILE...THE NOGAPS...ECMWF AND UKMET
MAINTAIN A STRONGER RIDGE TO THE NORTH WHICH MOVES KENNETH ON A
MORE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND LEANS TOWARDS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION OF A SLOW WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH 
CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST.  
THE INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES SLOWER WEAKER DUE TO THE 
HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY. IF KENNETH TRACKS MORE WESTWARD IT 
WOULD REMAIN OVER WARMER WATERS WHICH COULD DELAY THE WEAKENING
PROCESS.
 
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/1500Z 14.3N 129.4W   115 KT
 12HR VT     19/0000Z 14.4N 130.3W   110 KT
 24HR VT     19/1200Z 14.6N 131.2W   100 KT
 36HR VT     20/0000Z 14.9N 132.0W    90 KT
 48HR VT     20/1200Z 15.2N 132.7W    75 KT
 72HR VT     21/1200Z 15.9N 134.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     22/1200Z 16.7N 135.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     23/1200Z 17.5N 137.0W    50 KT
 
 
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