ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED 20 NM WIDE EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. THIS YIELDS T NUMBERS OF 6.0 FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 5.5 FROM TAFB. THE LATEST CIMSS AODT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS AROUND T 6.2. THIS SUPPORTS INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 115 KT...WHICH MAKES KENNETH A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/6. TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND GFDL TURNING THE STORM NORTHWARD IN 36-48 HOURS...DUE TO AN INTERACTION WITH A DIGGING DEEP-LAYERED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MEANWHILE...THE NOGAPS...ECMWF AND UKMET MAINTAIN A STRONGER RIDGE TO THE NORTH WHICH MOVES KENNETH ON A MORE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LEANS TOWARDS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION OF A SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES SLOWER WEAKER DUE TO THE HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY. IF KENNETH TRACKS MORE WESTWARD IT WOULD REMAIN OVER WARMER WATERS WHICH COULD DELAY THE WEAKENING PROCESS. FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 14.3N 129.4W 115 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 14.4N 130.3W 110 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 14.6N 131.2W 100 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 14.9N 132.0W 90 KT 48HR VT 20/1200Z 15.2N 132.7W 75 KT 72HR VT 21/1200Z 15.9N 134.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 22/1200Z 16.7N 135.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 23/1200Z 17.5N 137.0W 50 KT $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Sunday, 18-Sep-2005 15:10:20 UTC