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Hurricane KENNETH


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005
 
VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DISPLAY AN IMPRESSIVE 20 NM WIDE
SYMMETRIC EYE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN AT T-NUMBER 5.5..OR
102 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT
AT 105 KT. SSTS ARE CURRENTLY 28.0 DEGREES CELSIUS WHICH ARE
HELPING TO MAINTAIN KENNETH AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE FROM SHIPS...THE GFDL MODEL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
ALL INDICATE GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SSTS
COOL SLIGHTLY AND NORTHERLY SHEAR REMAINS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KT. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS WEAKENING TREND. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/6. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLUSTERED. 
ALL THE DYANAMICAL MODELS...EXCEPT THE UKMET...KEEP KENNETH SLOWER
AND TO THE RIGHT AND NORTH OF THE BAROTROPIC MODELS.  KENNETH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CYCLONE THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...KENNETH IS FORECAST TO SLOW
IN FORWARD MOTION AS THE STEERING CURRENTS BECOME WEAKER. 

BASED ON A 15Z QUIKSCAT PASS...THE RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED IN ALL
QUADRANTS. THE 12 FOOT SEA RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON
THE LATEST NOAA WAVE WATCH THREE GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/2100Z 14.0N 127.5W   105 KT
 12HR VT     18/0600Z 14.4N 128.3W   100 KT
 24HR VT     18/1800Z 14.8N 129.3W    95 KT
 36HR VT     19/0600Z 15.3N 130.2W    85 KT
 48HR VT     19/1800Z 15.9N 131.1W    75 KT
 72HR VT     20/1800Z 16.7N 132.3W    65 KT
 96HR VT     21/1800Z 17.2N 133.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     22/1800Z 17.5N 134.5W    50 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Saturday, 17-Sep-2005 21:10:28 UTC