Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane KENNETH


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU SEP 15 2005
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGEST
THAT KENNETH HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE.  IMAGERY DEPICTS A
WELL DEVELOPED SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH 
AN IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE BAND NOW EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST
SEMI-CIRCLES.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB
AND SAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO
65 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT INCREASES THE WINDS TO 80 KT IN 24 HOURS...
WHICH AGREES WITH THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS.  BEYOND DAY
3...KENNETH SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATER.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/8.  KENNETH IS SOUTH OF A MID- LEVEL
RIDGE...AND IS SITUATED BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM JOVA TO THE WEST AND
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST.  THE GFDL/GFDN/UKMET/  
ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE AN ABRUPT REDUCTION IN FORWARD MOTION AND A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH KENNETH AND A
POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE EAST SIMULTANEOUSLY
TURNING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN A BREAK IN THE MID- LAYER RIDGE. 
THE NOGAPS DEPICTS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS DEVELOPMENT OF THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST...HENCE...MAINTAINING KENNETH ON A
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MIRRORS
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IS SLOWER THROUGH THE
REMAINING PERIOD CONFORMING TO THE GUNA AND CONU CONSENSUS MODELS. 
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0300Z 13.1N 121.6W    65 KT
 12HR VT     16/1200Z 13.2N 122.3W    75 KT
 24HR VT     17/0000Z 13.5N 123.3W    80 KT
 36HR VT     17/1200Z 13.9N 124.4W    80 KT
 48HR VT     18/0000Z 14.2N 125.3W    75 KT
 72HR VT     19/0000Z 14.7N 127.3W    65 KT
 96HR VT     20/0000Z 15.0N 129.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     21/0000Z 15.5N 130.5W    50 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 16-Sep-2005 03:25:19 UTC