ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT THU SEP 15 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT KENNETH HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE. IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEVELOPED SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH AN IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE BAND NOW EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST SEMI-CIRCLES. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 65 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT INCREASES THE WINDS TO 80 KT IN 24 HOURS... WHICH AGREES WITH THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS. BEYOND DAY 3...KENNETH SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/8. KENNETH IS SOUTH OF A MID- LEVEL RIDGE...AND IS SITUATED BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM JOVA TO THE WEST AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THE GFDL/GFDN/UKMET/ ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE AN ABRUPT REDUCTION IN FORWARD MOTION AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH KENNETH AND A POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE EAST SIMULTANEOUSLY TURNING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN A BREAK IN THE MID- LAYER RIDGE. THE NOGAPS DEPICTS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS DEVELOPMENT OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST...HENCE...MAINTAINING KENNETH ON A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MIRRORS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IS SLOWER THROUGH THE REMAINING PERIOD CONFORMING TO THE GUNA AND CONU CONSENSUS MODELS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 13.1N 121.6W 65 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 13.2N 122.3W 75 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 13.5N 123.3W 80 KT 36HR VT 17/1200Z 13.9N 124.4W 80 KT 48HR VT 18/0000Z 14.2N 125.3W 75 KT 72HR VT 19/0000Z 14.7N 127.3W 65 KT 96HR VT 20/0000Z 15.0N 129.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 21/0000Z 15.5N 130.5W 50 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 16-Sep-2005 03:25:19 UTC