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Hurricane KENNETH (Text)

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HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU SEP 15 2005
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGEST
THAT KENNETH HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE.  IMAGERY DEPICTS A
WELL DEVELOPED SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH 
AN IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE BAND NOW EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST
SEMI-CIRCLES.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB
AND SAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO
65 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT INCREASES THE WINDS TO 80 KT IN 24 HOURS...
WHICH AGREES WITH THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS.  BEYOND DAY
3...KENNETH SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATER.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/8.  KENNETH IS SOUTH OF A MID- LEVEL
RIDGE...AND IS SITUATED BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM JOVA TO THE WEST AND
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST.  THE GFDL/GFDN/UKMET/  
ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE AN ABRUPT REDUCTION IN FORWARD MOTION AND A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH KENNETH AND A
POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE EAST SIMULTANEOUSLY
TURNING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN A BREAK IN THE MID- LAYER RIDGE. 
THE NOGAPS DEPICTS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS DEVELOPMENT OF THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST...HENCE...MAINTAINING KENNETH ON A
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MIRRORS
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IS SLOWER THROUGH THE
REMAINING PERIOD CONFORMING TO THE GUNA AND CONU CONSENSUS MODELS. 
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0300Z 13.1N 121.6W    65 KT
 12HR VT     16/1200Z 13.2N 122.3W    75 KT
 24HR VT     17/0000Z 13.5N 123.3W    80 KT
 36HR VT     17/1200Z 13.9N 124.4W    80 KT
 48HR VT     18/0000Z 14.2N 125.3W    75 KT
 72HR VT     19/0000Z 14.7N 127.3W    65 KT
 96HR VT     20/0000Z 15.0N 129.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     21/0000Z 15.5N 130.5W    50 KT
 
 
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