Tropical Storm KENNETH

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TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU SEP 15 2005
 
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WELL-DEFINED BANDING IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND VERY COLD CONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 55 KT.  THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED FROM 35 TO 45 KT AND MAY STILL BE A
LITTLE BEHIND THE CURVE.  OUTFLOW IS STRONG TO THE SOUTH BUT
LIMITED ELSEWHERE.  INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR THAT OF
JOVA...WITH THE GFDL TAKING THE SYSTEM TO OVER 80 KT BUT THE SHIPS
KEEPING THE CYCLONE AS A TROPICAL STORM.  GIVEN THE MORE IMPRESSIVE
ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM...I TEND TO LEAN TOWARDS THE GFDL
SOLUTION.  INTERESTINGLY...BOTH THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS
AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOP THE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST OF KENNETH AND END
UP HAVING THIS SYSTEM ABSORB KENNETH.  THIS SCENARIO IS NOT
CONSIDERED REALISTIC AT THIS TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/7.  KENNETH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE RIDGE WEAKENING
THEREAFTER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS AND GFDL
GUIDANCE...WHICH DOES NOT SHOW MUCH OF AN INTERACTION WITH THE
DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/1500Z 13.1N 120.3W    45 KT
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 13.3N 121.4W    55 KT
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 13.6N 122.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 13.9N 123.6W    65 KT
 48HR VT     17/1200Z 14.2N 124.6W    70 KT
 72HR VT     18/1200Z 14.8N 126.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     19/1200Z 15.5N 129.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     20/1200Z 16.0N 131.5W    60 KT
 
 
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