Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm KENNETH


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU SEP 15 2005
 
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WELL-DEFINED BANDING IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND VERY COLD CONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 55 KT.  THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED FROM 35 TO 45 KT AND MAY STILL BE A
LITTLE BEHIND THE CURVE.  OUTFLOW IS STRONG TO THE SOUTH BUT
LIMITED ELSEWHERE.  INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR THAT OF
JOVA...WITH THE GFDL TAKING THE SYSTEM TO OVER 80 KT BUT THE SHIPS
KEEPING THE CYCLONE AS A TROPICAL STORM.  GIVEN THE MORE IMPRESSIVE
ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM...I TEND TO LEAN TOWARDS THE GFDL
SOLUTION.  INTERESTINGLY...BOTH THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS
AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOP THE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST OF KENNETH AND END
UP HAVING THIS SYSTEM ABSORB KENNETH.  THIS SCENARIO IS NOT
CONSIDERED REALISTIC AT THIS TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/7.  KENNETH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE RIDGE WEAKENING
THEREAFTER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS AND GFDL
GUIDANCE...WHICH DOES NOT SHOW MUCH OF AN INTERACTION WITH THE
DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/1500Z 13.1N 120.3W    45 KT
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 13.3N 121.4W    55 KT
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 13.6N 122.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 13.9N 123.6W    65 KT
 48HR VT     17/1200Z 14.2N 124.6W    70 KT
 72HR VT     18/1200Z 14.8N 126.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     19/1200Z 15.5N 129.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     20/1200Z 16.0N 131.5W    60 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 15-Sep-2005 14:40:19 UTC